The third quarter of 2025 delivered strong returns across global markets as AI-driven optimism and renewed international strength reshaped investor sentiment, prompting a cautious reflection on how far this rally can run.
2025 highlights a key lesson: while U.S. markets have often taken the spotlight over the last decade or so, valuable global opportunities to enhance portfolio returns remain.
In late January, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup called DeepSeek launched a powerful, low-cost AI tool. This challenged the belief that only the most prominent U.S. tech firms could lead in AI.
Two important developments are worthy of exploration in this quarter's commentary. First, rising intermediate and long-term interest rates are creating a markedly different environment for bonds and the broader investment landscape. Second, the trends that have characterized stock market returns over the last few years continued to an even greater degree in the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
Investors were treated to a bumpy ride in the third quarter, but stocks are at record highs as the final three months of 2024 get underway, and bonds are solidly in the green. The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited reduction in interest rates played a crucial role in the solid returns on stocks and bonds.
Global stock returns were mixed yet relatively flat in the second quarter—except for a handful of mega-cap U.S. companies (“The Magnificent Seven”), which once again dominated the return of market capitalization-weighted indices.